Provident Capital and the global "credit
crunch"
Judging by the feedback from
our
first 2008 eUpdate, many of you have been amazed at how
quickly the
crisis in
global credit markets has impacted on funding
sources and sent shock waves through the stock market and devastated
listed
companies with high levels of debt. In a few savage months we have once
again
been reminded that share markets can go down as well as up.
The speed at which the impacts of the so-called "Credit Crunch" have
been felt globally has suprised economists, market commentators and big
businesses alike. There have been far reaching effects on stock markets
around the world.
But
how has it all happened? Well, with breathtaking velocity
we have moved from an environment where an ever increasing appetite for
risk
was fuelled with ‘cheap and easy money’ to the
present environment where risk
averse lenders have led to a reduced capacity for financial leverage
and
brought
with it higher funding costs.
Whilst
the crisis begin with the US
sub-prime market, it has now spread to Australia
and impacted on the
financial sector here particularly for non-bank lenders' who relied on
a
liquid
securitisation market. Even the banking sector has been heavily hit
with
increased funding costs a rising concern with bad debts and an
increasing focus
on risk.
Many
lenders are now disappearing from the market as their
business models are no longer relevant when funding has either dried up
or is
only available at a business-ending higher cost.
But
it is not all bad news.
Domestically,
the impact of the sub-prime crisis has
differed from the US
in that the impact has been about the lack of liquidity rather than the
quality
of the underlying credit. Look to the difficulties experienced by RAMS
as a
clear example.
Notwithstanding
the pressure of increasing interest rates,
the Australian housing market is likely to remain firm, characterised
by excess
demand for rental accommodation and fuelled by high rental costs,
immigration and
low levels of building particularly in NSW and QLD. Having said that,
consumer
sentiment is likely to remain low and there may be some time before
‘confident’
purchasers return to the market.
Even
considering the likely damping caused by recent
interest rate rises, market experts are expecting 5-10% increase in
house
prices with the exception of Perth
which could come in lower.
Recent
comments by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) have
given the first sign that ‘perhaps’ the recent
increase in official rates may
have been sufficient to curb the inflationary demon. In fact, faced
with recent
data, a number of respected commentators are on the record as saying
that the
RBA has gone one or two rate hikes too far.
If
this is the case, then the combination of a falling stock market,
declining
business and consumer confidence, and significantly tighter conditions
in
domestic credit markets could lead to an earlier and more marked
slowdown in
domestic spending than has been forecast. Pressure would then be on the
RBA to
ease monetary policy by lowering interest rates particularly if it
becomes
clear unemployment is rising and domestic demand is slowing. This is
also
likely to lead to a depreciation of the Australian dollar.
So
what does this all mean for Provident Capital?
Our dual funding
lines provide us with the capability to continue lending through this
tight liquidity market.
Provident
Capital is in an enviable position of being one of
a few non-bank lenders with both a deposit base and committed wholesale
funding
capabilities. This dual funding line means we have the capability to
continue
lending through this tight liquidity market. In 2008 we’re
sharper than ever.
The
tighter credit market is in fact assisting our lending
business as our non-banking competitors either restrict lending or
withdraw
from the market. Clearly brokers will continue to direct lending
possibilities
to financiers with known capability to settle transactions.
Our
product line is also expanding. We have launched the new Provident
Platinum product aimed at the ‘rural
residential'. This month we anticipate launching a new lending product
aimed at
funding for self managed super funds without personal or trust
guarantees.
Amongst answering the cries of ‘help’ from brokers
looking to place deals in
this tight market our BDMs will be available to update you
on these exciting
opportunities.
Whilst
non-code regulated residential lending has been our
strongest performing sector, increased activity has been experienced in
all
sectors – residential, commercial, industrial and rural.
The tighter credit
markets are proving to be a boon for
Provident as we experience stronger than ever lending activity. If you
need a
reliable non-bank lender to deliver on your clients lending needs, look
no
further than Provident Capital.
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